Bone Thrower Craps

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Tracking Your Throws

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2. Craps isn't like blackjack, poker, or sports betting, where there are clearly defined skill elements that separate good and bad players. Instead, craps is widely considered a game that deals with dice probabilities and luck. This makes it difficult to determine the best craps player in the world. Here are our picks.

The only way to beat craps is to know the 'Loop Hole' - enter Dice Control Well, you can't exactly control the dice. I like how the Dice Coach refers to it - Dice Influence. The 'Loop Hole' is the fact that the casino makes money from craps as long as the dice are perfectly random. This is how their mathematicians made their calculations.

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PorkChop has written a great Microsoft Excel based application for tracking your practice throws. The application tracks and analyzes a huge amount of data.

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If you prefer on tracking your throws yourself....

Here's a simple way to track and evaluate whether you are altering the frequency table. It's easier if you use an Excel spreadsheet but you can also do it by hand. To get a reasonably valid statistical sample, you're going to throw the dice AT LEAST 540 times which is 15 sets of 36 rolls. I could take up to three hours to log in 540 rolls. Of course you could do this over the course of a few practice sessions. You should use one specific pre set for each practice session. It's even BETTER if you have someone noting the rolls for you, that way you can concentrate on your throwing mechanics. (My wife said NO!)

To track your rolls: Throw the dice, add 1 to whatever the previous total was in the corresponding Total Rolls column.

If you are using Excel you can program it to sum the total rolls column automatically so you know when you've reached 540.

If you ARE using excel, you can also have a fourth column which calculates what the Roll Total Should Be based on how many times you've thrown the dice thus far. For instance, if your total rolls = 72 so far, then in the case of 2, you would have an equation: (total rolls divided by 36) times 1 normal occurrence). So after 72 throws, the 2 SHOULD have appeared 2 times. You would create a similar equation for all dice totals. At any time, you will be able to compare what you've thrown to what the normal probability table would expect to be thrown.

The Excel Function for the math to create the value in column four is provided below. The Excel Function is arrived at by dividing the Roll Total by 36 and then multiplying by the probability. First you need to determine the value of probability for each paired numbers. See table below. (Note 7 does not have a pair) The Excel Function will look something like: =Sum(C1/36*P), where C1 is the cell holding the Roll Total and P = probability.

The probability for the paired numbers, 5/9, is 4. If the total rolls is 72, then 72 divided by 36 = 2 times the probability of 4, which is 8. Eight is the total number of expected outcomes, using true math, possible with two dice.

What if the total rolls is 90? 90/36*4 = 10. Ten is the total number of expected outcomes for a 5 or 9, true math, possible with two dice out of 90 random rolls.

Below is a table with the Excel Functions. The Excel Function is programmed into the cell in column four. It does not matter if your total roll is 36 times or 1,738 times. The function will mathematically represent the true math probability for any number of rolls for any number on two dice. In this way you can compare your results with dice influencing against probability.

Excel Functions for Probability and Roll Total

If you are using a set for avoiding the seven (i.e. the crossed sixes), the 7 row should be significantly less than 90 (at least 13 less). If you threw the 7 only 77 times instead of 90, you have reduced the frequency table from a 16%* appearance rate (1 of 6) to a 14%* appearance rate (1 of 7). Inversely, if you've used the same set for the 540 throws, you've probably also altered the frequency table of the other numbers. If you used the crossed six for example, my guess would be that the appearance of the 5 and 9 would be significantly higher than the statistical norm.
*rounded

So you say, I shaved 2% off the appearance of the 7, big deal. It IS a big deal! With that small alteration of the frequency table, if you place bets with small house percentages, you have for all practical purposes erased the house edge! But take it one step further, not only have you reduced the number of appearances of the 7, but you also have an indicator of how you should be betting!

For me the crossed sixes set gives me a disproportionate amount of 5's and 9's. Your mechanics and style could have a different outcome. Only practice will tell. I know of someone who throws an extraordinary number of horn numbers. Usually this would be a poor betting strategy, but for him the house advantage on these bets has been reduced significantly because of his propensity to throw them.

With every set that you practice, you should also keep a running total of hard way throws that you make. You'll probably find that certain pre sets will have an inordinate number of certain hard ways. All of this practice will arm you with the necessary information to develop a corresponding betting strategy to employ when it's your turn to throw the bones.

No matter how proficient you become at setting and throwing the dice, there is no need to put money at undue risk. You will develop signature throwing trends that are unique to you. Do not put money at risk on numbers that you have not displayed an affinity to throw for the devil 7 will eventually come. In other words, KNOW THY SELF!

Once you have your throwing mechanics down, and can REGULARLY alter the frequency table throwing the dice consecutively 540 times, the next step is to stop throwing for some period of time (10 minutes, overnight etc.) every time you throw a 7. The point of this is to break the rhythm you've gotten yourself into every time you 'seven out' and to simulate the fact that you have to recreate your rhythm every time you receive the dice.

It’s no hidden secret that the house always wins in casino games. This is the only way the casino can make enough money to pay their costs including staff, operations and maintenance etc. But in Craps in particular, the house edge can be very high compared to other games. The % of winning at Craps can be improved if you know the best way to play craps.

Some craps bets for instance can have up to a 14% edge. This means if you play craps recklessly in a casino, without learning any craps strategy and how to win at craps, you’ll lose a lot of money in a short space of time.

By reading up our Craps strategy, before you play online craps or live craps, you’ll minimise your losses (and maximise your chance to winning at craps) by sticking to profitable bets with a low house edge. You can avoid the costly bets that only suckers make, and in the long term you’ll increase your expected value from the game. You can also check out the various Craps betting systems which have been published online and used a lot by craps players. So let’s read and learn how to win at craps.

Craps Strategy : Best Craps Bets

The best bets to place, whether you’re just starting out or a seasoned pro, are the Pass Line bet and Don’t Pass Line bets. These bets are similar to Blackjack and roulette in that you basically have a 50/50 chance of doubling up and the house only has a 1.41% advantage.

“Betting Against the Line” means you are betting against the run of play. These odds are actually slightly better than Pass Line bet as the house only has a 1.40% edge. You win by laying the person rolling and hoping that he hits a 7 before his Point. Be careful when placing this bet however, because it tends to mean you are betting against everyone else at the table i.e. when you win they lose.

The second range of optimal betting includes place 6, place 8, buy 4 and buy 10. Buying the 4 and 10 is cheaper than placing them. Just remember that placing the other numbers is cheaper than buying them.

Most players are unaware of this but there are a few bets you can make that have a 0% house advantage. These are the Taking the Odds and Laying the Odds. Unfortunately, you need to have previously placed the minimum bet on Pass Line of Don’t Pass Line to place these, which happens to give the House a marginal advantage overall. Most casinos also limit the amount you can wager on the odds bets. This is related to your Pass Line/Don’t Pass bets e.g. limit of 2-5x.

Take a look at our craps bets guide for in-depth guide about the best craps bets.
We also have to mention that we found some good strategy articles at www.casinosformoney.com for both craps and other casino games.

Worst Craps Bets

Generally speaking, the higher the real odds the larger the House’s mark-up. This means betting on an unlikely event like “Big 6/Big 8” gives the house a massive 9.1% advantage. These are horrible odds for any gambler. Even though the payouts are high I would avoid these hit-and-miss bets.

The worst thing you can do in Craps is make “Big Round”, Hard Way or Field bets. Punters who bet on individual numbers is the big money maker for casinos. The odds can be even worse for Hard numbers like Hard Eight where the real odds of 10:1 are replaced by Casino odds of 9:1. The worst proposition bets give the House a 16% advantage in some casinos. Snake Eyes (1 and 1) is one of the most popular proposition bets but it is also costly. It gives the house a 14% advantage.

Craps Tips

When playing craps at casinos, get comfortable with the pass, come, and free odds wagers. The only good wagers are the pass, don’t pass, come, don’t come, free odds, and placing the 6 and 8 wagers. In the beginning, stay with the pass line and a come wager or two (with odds). The house edge is good for pass (1.41%) and don’t pass (1.36%) wagers.

By laying odds, these numbers will be reduced, too. It’s best to ignore all systems when online gambling and playing craps. This game is full of energy and excitement. Just be sure to be familiar with the above wagers before you start playing this popular game. Have fun!

• It is best to make your betting selection(s) or establish a pattern of play and stick to it.
• For those of you who want to play longer and enjoy the action, it is best to stick to the ‘pass/don’t pass’ and ‘come/don’t come’ bets.
• For those of you who wish to ‘hit and run’ and winning is your priority, go for the high-odds bets.
• Raise your betting if you are winning, lower your betting if you are losing.
• You should never quit after a win.
• Last but not least, do not plan to win with every roll of the dice.

If you are the shooter at a craps table, your must make sure that you throw the dice far enough to bounce off of the far or side wall. This is a requirement when shooting craps. By bouncing off of the wall casinos can be sure that the winning numbers are random.

Gamblers Fallacy

There is a common tendency for gamblers to make predictions. The thing that you should be doing is trying to plan out your bets based upon your previous bets. Let me give you a couple of examples:

Best 5 Craps Strategies

STRATEGY #1: Using Classic Regression
Goal: To earn profit on a single hit.

1) Wait until the shooter establishes a point before placing your bets.
2) Once the point is determined, place $6.00 (two units) on both the 6 and 8 (For a total wager of $12.00).
3) After a single hit, ask the Dealer to go down one unit on both the 6 & 8.

Results: You have earned $2.00 and can no longer be taken by the Seven. You also still have $12.00 working for you. After a second hit, bring down all your wagers and wait for the shooter to roll the point or a 7. When this is achieved, start the process over.

On two hits your total earning is $21.00. You can bring down your wagers after the first hit, earning $14.00. Or, you can keep betting on the 6 & 8. If you choose to continue riding your wagers, make sure both the 6 & 8 are covered.

Behind the Strategy: There are exactly ten different combined ways to create a 6 and 8. There are exactly six combined ways for creating a seven.

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STRATEGY #2: Putting the ” Three Point Molly” to Use
Goal: To have three numbers working for your advantage at all times.

1) Place a Pass Line wager.
2) Backup your Pass Line wager by placing single or double odds on it.
3) Place a Come Line wager.
4) Backup your Come Bet wager by placing single or double odds on it (Two Come bets maximum).
5) When a Come Bets wins, immediately place another.
6) Repeat this process until the shooter rolls the point or a seven (Seven-Out).

Behind the Strategy: Every Come Bet you place will protect your original Pass Line wager. This will allow you to take advantage of a hot and lucky shooter.

STRATEGY #3: Winning with “Anything But Seven”
Goal: To win with any rolled number besides a seven.

1) Wait until the shooter establishes a point before placing your bets.
2) Once the point is determined, place $6.00 (two units) on the 5, 6 and 8 (For a total wager of $36.00).
3) Place one unit on the Field ($3.00).

Bone Thrower Craps Stacking

Result: If the shooter keeps the dice for at least three rolls, you can earn $15.00-$27.00. If a two or twelve are thrown, you will earn even more. It is advisable to remove all your wagers after three rolls. Since this is a high risk bet with $39.00 invested, it is a safe precaution to do so.

Behind the Strategy: The average shooter rolls the dice 4 to 6 times before throwing a 7.

STRATEGY #4: Playing a “6/8 Play”
Goal: To earn substantial profit on just two hits.

1) Wait until the shooter rolls one more time after making a point.
2) Make a Pass Line or Don’t Pass Line wager.
3) Place $18.00 on both the 6 & 8 for a net wager of $36.00.
4) After a 6 or 8 is rolled, tell the dealer you want $22.00 Inside.
5) On the very next hit, tell the dealer to take down the 5 and 9.
6) Let the shooter throw the dice three more times, and then bring down the 6 & 8.

Results: After the First Hit you will get back $21.00, and $14.00 from the takedown to 22 Inside. Your net exposure after the first hit is $1.00, with $22.00 in your favor. The second hit will make $7.00 plus the return of $10.00, resulting from the 5 and 9 takedown. After two hits you will have earned $16.00 profit, and will still have $12.00 working in your favor. At this time, you can choose to either have the 6 and 8 continue working for you, or, take your $12.00 off the table.

Behind the Strategy: If the shooter has not rolled the point or a 6 or 8 by the fourth roll, you should take down all wagers and wait for another shooter. You can lay down $24.00 instead of $36.00 to begin with if you do not want to risk as much. With a hot and lucky shooter you may want to keep the 5 and 9 up and playing for more than just one throw.

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Bone Thrower Live Craps

STRATEGY #5: Using Regressive and Pressing Methods
Goal: Letting your earnings ride after recovering your beginning investment.

1) After the player makes their point, place $18.00 on both the 6 and 8 for a total investment of $36.00.
2) After the first hit, tell the dealer you want $22.00 inside.
3) Remove the 5 and 9 after the second hit has occurred.
4) Immediately place the 5 and 9 back up after the third hit has occurred.
5) After the fourth hit, press the 6 and 8 up to $12.00 each for a total of $24.00.
6) After the fifth hit; return to Step #1 and repeat the process.

Results: After the first hit, you will get back $21.00 and $14.00 from the takedown to 22 inside. Your exposure risk is $1.00. After the second hit has occurred, you will get back $7.00 plus an additional $10.00 by removing the 5 & 9. Your total profit after two hits is exactly $16.00, with $12.00 working for you.

Bone Thrower Craps Video

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